I think Thomas and I are *partially* in agreement. Trump wants Canada to be the 51st state... I just think his plans are not very likely to pan out. On the invasion pathway, THD lays out a Putinist strategy that Trump could try to use, in theory, but he doesn't quite mention the remaining checks and balances within the US which would serve as significant obstacles to such plans; these are indeed frighteningly being whittled away... but as much as Trump himself is a fascist, the US today is not (yet) a fully fascist state. I think that would be a pre-requisite for the military invasion pathway...
Sure, he’s got to consolidate his power in the US first. This might not take much time. He seems to be facing very little resistance, and we’ve already seen how quickly it can happen in other countries. Once he’s got complete control in the States, he’ll come for us.
His comments in the media today reminded me of this conversation. He was asked point blank whether he’d ever use military force against Canada. He said he couldn’t imagine ever doing that.
Great post! Agree with the analysis and overall conclusion. I would posit some additional factors:
1) The economic coercion pathway (the one I'm concerned about) is likely to be a war of attrition where the US Regime seeks to outlast the Canadian pain threshold, after which Canadians of their own accord will say this is no longer worth it and be compelled into some sort of talks. Luckily I don't think this will happen within 4 years, but there could be some damage, also because:
2) Trump is not logical. We already see how little he cares about the effects on his own country when making rash, non-policy driven decisions - e.g. stock market reactions and instantly escalating to 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum (of which they import 75% from Canada) after the Ontario electricity gambit.
3) I think the assumptions that Republican politicians care about what constituents think (they don't), that Trump listens to them (he doesn't), or that they will speak up to him (they won't) are optimistic. This is all possible because of the cult of Trump where any manner of self-immolation felt by Trump voters is still the fault of Obama/Biden/her emails/gender-neutral washrooms.
4) American exceptionalism is a real, deeply ingrained thing that permeates - at least to a small level - even the most worldly, small 'd' democratic ranks of the US military and State Dept. This will affect the decision-making of even the US Generals who have worked alongside Canadians.
Great points! I'm also worried about the "trade war of attrition", as it were... I guess the question is what kinds of sentiments would that generate internally within Canada? Would it weaken us and cause division? Would it unite us and increase our anti-American resolve? Don't know... It's still early days. April 2nd is Trade War day. But one 'comforting' thought is they're basically applying tariffs on *everyone*, and we'll have to see how Canada comes out on the other end...
Thanks, Ryan! Very interesting! I have been thinking about the potential pathways to annexation myself and have concluded there are two. The first is military conquest in which Canada surrenders following an invasion. In the face of an American attack, Canada is defenceless and I am not sure NATO or other allies could provide the necessary support logistically, if they even had the will to do so. You outline reasons why a military attack is unlikely, but I think if the world has learned anything in the weeks since Mr Trump’s inauguration it is to remember that “no one expects the Spanish Inquisition” and that all bets on the USA following the rules of the post-war international order are off (or at least seriously in doubt). The second scenario is the piecemeal disintegration of the country province-by-province through the legal processes outlined in the Clarity Act, whereby a province can separate from the federation. In such a scenario, presumably a newly independent political entity could subsequently decide to join the USA and over time a number of provinces, influenced by all manner of political/economic/social/cultural threats and incentives could go that route. Not very likely to happen. But what I cannot wrap my head around is the constitutional/legal/political process whereby in a single decision the political entity currently known as Canada - under all manner of external/internal pressure - would cease to exist as a sovereign and independent country and simultaneously become a part of the USA. I can’t imagine (but admit I have not researched this issue) that our constitution allows for any combination of the Governor General, the Prime Minister, the Premiers, the federal/provincial/territorial legislatures and Canada’s indigenous peoples to make a decision (with or without public support as expressed through a national referendum or a suite of referenda) that completely negates Canadian sovereignty and converts Canada into a part of the USA. As such, I have concluded that annexation could only result from either military conquest or the gradual disintegration of the country through legal/political decisions taken at the provincial level (admittedly accepted federally as per the Clarity Act) followed by those newly-independent polities deciding to join the USA. It seems to me that the military conquest scenario is more likely and the likelihood of that happening is negligible, but I wouldn’t peg it as absolutely inconceivable ever.
Thomas Homer-Dixon disagrees: https://cascadeinstitute.org/prepare-for-war/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
I think Thomas and I are *partially* in agreement. Trump wants Canada to be the 51st state... I just think his plans are not very likely to pan out. On the invasion pathway, THD lays out a Putinist strategy that Trump could try to use, in theory, but he doesn't quite mention the remaining checks and balances within the US which would serve as significant obstacles to such plans; these are indeed frighteningly being whittled away... but as much as Trump himself is a fascist, the US today is not (yet) a fully fascist state. I think that would be a pre-requisite for the military invasion pathway...
Sure, he’s got to consolidate his power in the US first. This might not take much time. He seems to be facing very little resistance, and we’ve already seen how quickly it can happen in other countries. Once he’s got complete control in the States, he’ll come for us.
His comments in the media today reminded me of this conversation. He was asked point blank whether he’d ever use military force against Canada. He said he couldn’t imagine ever doing that.
Great post! Agree with the analysis and overall conclusion. I would posit some additional factors:
1) The economic coercion pathway (the one I'm concerned about) is likely to be a war of attrition where the US Regime seeks to outlast the Canadian pain threshold, after which Canadians of their own accord will say this is no longer worth it and be compelled into some sort of talks. Luckily I don't think this will happen within 4 years, but there could be some damage, also because:
2) Trump is not logical. We already see how little he cares about the effects on his own country when making rash, non-policy driven decisions - e.g. stock market reactions and instantly escalating to 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum (of which they import 75% from Canada) after the Ontario electricity gambit.
3) I think the assumptions that Republican politicians care about what constituents think (they don't), that Trump listens to them (he doesn't), or that they will speak up to him (they won't) are optimistic. This is all possible because of the cult of Trump where any manner of self-immolation felt by Trump voters is still the fault of Obama/Biden/her emails/gender-neutral washrooms.
4) American exceptionalism is a real, deeply ingrained thing that permeates - at least to a small level - even the most worldly, small 'd' democratic ranks of the US military and State Dept. This will affect the decision-making of even the US Generals who have worked alongside Canadians.
Great points! I'm also worried about the "trade war of attrition", as it were... I guess the question is what kinds of sentiments would that generate internally within Canada? Would it weaken us and cause division? Would it unite us and increase our anti-American resolve? Don't know... It's still early days. April 2nd is Trade War day. But one 'comforting' thought is they're basically applying tariffs on *everyone*, and we'll have to see how Canada comes out on the other end...
To be clear, the previous comment was from John Pinkerton, Tamara Tarasoff’s husband.
Thanks, Ryan! Very interesting! I have been thinking about the potential pathways to annexation myself and have concluded there are two. The first is military conquest in which Canada surrenders following an invasion. In the face of an American attack, Canada is defenceless and I am not sure NATO or other allies could provide the necessary support logistically, if they even had the will to do so. You outline reasons why a military attack is unlikely, but I think if the world has learned anything in the weeks since Mr Trump’s inauguration it is to remember that “no one expects the Spanish Inquisition” and that all bets on the USA following the rules of the post-war international order are off (or at least seriously in doubt). The second scenario is the piecemeal disintegration of the country province-by-province through the legal processes outlined in the Clarity Act, whereby a province can separate from the federation. In such a scenario, presumably a newly independent political entity could subsequently decide to join the USA and over time a number of provinces, influenced by all manner of political/economic/social/cultural threats and incentives could go that route. Not very likely to happen. But what I cannot wrap my head around is the constitutional/legal/political process whereby in a single decision the political entity currently known as Canada - under all manner of external/internal pressure - would cease to exist as a sovereign and independent country and simultaneously become a part of the USA. I can’t imagine (but admit I have not researched this issue) that our constitution allows for any combination of the Governor General, the Prime Minister, the Premiers, the federal/provincial/territorial legislatures and Canada’s indigenous peoples to make a decision (with or without public support as expressed through a national referendum or a suite of referenda) that completely negates Canadian sovereignty and converts Canada into a part of the USA. As such, I have concluded that annexation could only result from either military conquest or the gradual disintegration of the country through legal/political decisions taken at the provincial level (admittedly accepted federally as per the Clarity Act) followed by those newly-independent polities deciding to join the USA. It seems to me that the military conquest scenario is more likely and the likelihood of that happening is negligible, but I wouldn’t peg it as absolutely inconceivable ever.
Good counterpoints! Reminds me of this piece which argues the opposite of what I've said myself above; https://theconversation.com/how-the-u-s-could-in-fact-make-canada-an-american-territory-246877 [I still think it's deeply unlikely though - the costs of an invasion would be too great (not just financial costs, political and human). I think the US military itself would be concerned about these risks: https://theconversation.com/why-annexing-canada-would-destroy-the-united-states-249561